Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.078566 4.453746 4.870085 5.370884 5.963168 6.649508 7.517505
2025-01-05 3.506431 3.976959 4.534817 5.259162 6.197550 7.407715 9.153040
2025-01-12 3.145080 3.652813 4.280843 5.139333 6.326028 7.986470 10.658353
2025-01-19 2.853197 3.367124 4.021485 4.949021 6.293732 8.297874 11.830654
2025-01-26 2.727242 3.273178 3.990158 5.047855 6.666968 9.269766 14.431319
2025-02-02 2.660280 3.245760 4.038600 5.256797 7.232311 10.689495 18.615908
2025-02-09 2.577275 3.186714 4.033035 5.378863 7.674573 12.021744 23.596132
2025-02-16 2.453455 3.060339 3.917311 5.312196 7.777160 12.722466 27.575744
2025-02-23 2.350482 2.955627 3.823471 5.267365 7.907386 13.520223 32.762123
2025-03-02 2.256024 2.856694 3.729800 5.210866 8.003543 14.273542 38.915174
2025-03-09 2.171563 2.767052 3.643247 5.156216 8.092564 15.044005 46.685503
2025-03-16 2.106461 2.701950 3.589577 5.151918 8.281866 16.154878 59.455233
2025-03-23 2.062998 2.667878 3.584104 5.236120 8.684114 18.100469 88.393601
2025-03-30 1.983587 2.575710 3.479915 5.130480 8.650002 18.703279 110.370750
2025-04-06 1.908477 2.486691 3.375695 5.015546 8.577126 19.162867 137.574586
2025-04-13 1.825335 2.382127 3.240895 4.832687 8.319864 18.883652 150.737498
2025-04-20 1.800931 2.366707 3.251575 4.927678 8.746229 21.398910 332.014461
2025-04-27 1.796630 2.381869 3.313511 5.128336 9.484664 25.906835 7471.362771
2025-05-04 1.777434 2.372448 3.332779 5.245463 10.037329 30.302927 NaN
2025-05-11 1.729935 2.315932 3.267470 5.181501 10.071194 31.934514 NaN
2025-05-18 1.688520 2.267657 3.214173 5.138479 10.160084 34.080108 NaN
2025-05-25 1.647704 2.218913 3.157738 5.084244 10.207223 36.080875 NaN
2025-06-01 1.609340 2.172866 3.104008 5.031769 10.252211 38.217220 NaN